Сибирский федеральный университет
Visual Interactive Simulations for Education and Science
HomeAboutSign upSign in Русский

Epidemy growth

The model helps to understand the patterns of development of epidemics.

If we divide all people N into groups S - susceptible, E (exposed) - infected in the incubation period, I - infected patients, R - recovered, the epidemic dynamics can be described by SEIR model with equations:

where γ is the speed of recovery,
β is the intensity of contacts with infected,
k is the reciprocal of the incubation period,
θ - coefficient of infectiousness for people during the incubation period (see link).

In this model, the contact intensity factor β is constant, which makes this model somewhat divorced from reality, where various external and self-limiting measures affect the value of the parameter. However, it is in this ideal form that the model is demonstrative!

Change the β coefficient with the slider to see how the duration and the total number of people who have recovered from the epidemic depend.

Based on: https://habr.com/ru/post/500348/

Source code   Version in Russan
Ivan Denisov